Monthly Archives: December 2013

Hope for the world?

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In spite of fears that the world population will continue to grow almost indefinitely, evidence now shows that population growth is slowing to about 2 births per couple.  At this rate, the world population should level out at about 10 billion people (I propose 12 billion for reasons I explain further down).  It is estimated that we are now at about 7 billion.

Why?  It seems that the reduction in birth rate correlates with relative wealth and longevity.  As people live longer and incomes rise, people are motivated to have smaller families.  This seems counter-intuitive to many, but the data shows it is true. Countries that have higher child mortality rates also have higher birth rates to compensate.

What does this mean to the health care industry?  It means that solving the twin problems of feeding people and keeping them healthy will continue to be a high priority.  Remember, if there are 10 billion people and their average age is much longer, there will be a lot of food consumed and a lot of health care needed for all these people.  In fact, staying healthy will become an obsession for people who don’t want to spend those extra years with chronic illness.  Health care will have to adapt to this new dynamic.  Treatment of chronic illnesses will actually dominate health care.

You must watch this terrific TED Talk by Dr. Han Rosling, who gives an amazing graphic explanation for this phenomenon.  Dr. Rosling has an uncanny ability to to present complex information so that everyone can understand it.  The title is Religion and Babies but I believe a better title is Population, Wealth and Religion. (if you are viewing this on email and don’t see the video link, go directly to my blog at richardhenson.wordpress.com)

Dr. Rosling gives a very coherent and entertaining explanation of why world population will level off at 10 million. I personally adjust this number to 12 million because I believe he is not fully considering that an increasing percentage of the world population will live up to 20 years longer than now.

Why is this important to the medical community? As the world goes through this change, medicine and medical technology must also adapt to the increasing demand for chronic care vs. acute care. Health care must continue to get less expensive while simultaneously getting better. Even if the population levels off at 10 (or 12) billion, the number of “years lived” will continue to grow because of longevity. This will bring unlimited opportunities for new advancements in medical technology.

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